Future World Situation Could Be Increasingly Volatile

During the next quarter century the world will produce enough food to meet the demand of people who can afford to buy it, but millions of people in the developing world will still face hunger and malnutrition unless significant changes are made in agricultural policies and research. A new 2020 Vision food policy report, The World Food Situation: Recent Developments, Emerging Issues, and Long-Term Prospects, projects that as many as 150 million children in developing countries—one out of four preschool children—could remain malnourished in 2020 (Figure 1). Moreover, the “food gap”—the difference between production and demand for food—could more than double in the developing world during the next 25 years, increasing dependence on imports from developed countries.

The report, by Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Rajul Pandya-Lorch, and Mark W. Rosegrant, draws on IFPRI’s global food model to project future food supply and demand and reviews both recent events and emerging issues affecting food security. The authors note that humanity is entering an era of volatility in the world food situation. A number of factors—such as low grain stocks, growing water scarcity, weather fluctuations, and civil strife—could lead to larger fluctuations in food availability and access in various regions and countries around the world, making the poor even more vulnerable to hunger than they are now.

The report recommends that agricultural research and policy aimed at reduced poverty and food insecurity should focus on low-income developing countries, particularly small-scale farmers in those countries. Research and policy should also be designed to help farmers, communities, and governments better cope with the greater risks likely to face them in coming years.

Next article