North Korea Urgently Needs Humanitarian Aid and a New Food Policy

North Korea faces what may be the worst famine of the 20th century. There are few reliable data on the extent of malnutrition or starvation deaths, but the situation is clearly grave. In January 1998, the United Nations World Food Programme issued its largest appeal ever, for $378 million worth of food aid, to feed one of every three North Koreans.

Interviews with refugees in China have painted a shocking picture of people stealing to eat, others subsisting on wild plants and boiled tree bark, and even cannibalism. Revered elders have forgone food to assure their grandchildren’s survival. Lack of medicine and failing sanitation systems have spread preventable diseases such as tuberculosis.

Adequate emergency assistance is critical, including not only food and medicine, but seeds, fertilizer, and other aid to restart food production. Much food aid is channeled through food-for-work projects aimed at repairing flood damage, as well as supplemental feeding of vulnerable mothers and children. Relief agencies have also helped with planting a second barley crop.

The immediate causes of the catastrophe include three consecutive years of poor weather, physical limits on viable agricultural area even in good years, and deforestation that has heightened the impact of natural disasters.

Serious structural problems underlie these factors. The national economy has contracted, as long-term trade with the former Soviet Union and other onetime socialist countries has collapsed, cutting off privileged access to petroleum, capital goods, and spare parts. The United States maintains a trade embargo.

Virtually all agriculture occurs on state-owned farms, where peasants are in effect salaried workers, and the government exercises monopoly control over the bulk of output. Food is strictly rationed. The famine has created a sizable underground food economy.

Sustainable food security will require new policies that offer farming families incentives to grow food. Recently emerging farmers’ markets are a step in the right direction. Experience in neighboring China and Viet Nam offers valuable lessons on how appropriate incentives can influence food security.

Justin Lin of the China Center for Economic Research has found that China’s reliance mainly on collective farming before 1978 meant output losses of some 17 percent, compared with output following the shift to “household responsibility.” Viet Nam has likewise enjoyed bumper harvests by shifting to family farming and liberalizing its rice market.

IFPRI research suggests that North Korea would benefit considerably from external trade liberalization as well. Given the improbability of food self-sufficiency, exploiting comparative advantage in exports of minerals, light manufacturing, fruits and vegetables, and livestock products would earn foreign exchange for food and other essential imports. It is encouraging that South Korean President Kim Dae Jung has shown openness to expanded trade between the two Koreas.

North Korea has an efficient public distribution system that can help ease the difficult transition that policy reform will require. A relatively well-developed agricultural research and extension system can facilitate increased food production.

But successful policy reform will also depend on transparency, accountability, and willingness to change—in short on “good governance.” Without this, the country will likely face a food crisis for some time to come.

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