VISION
News & Views
July 1996
AIDS Slowing Economic Growth in Africa
(Based on 2020 Vision Discussion Paper 15, The Potential Impact of AIDS on
Population and Economic Growth Rates, by Lynn R. Brown)
AIDS will have a devastating effect on economic growth in Southern Africa and could also affect the growing economies of Asia as the epidemic gains a foothold there. AIDS can hit developing countries on several fronts at once, resulting in reduced savings and investment, lost production, lost labor, high health care costs, and reduced returns on investments in health and education. The economic damage is even worse when the disease hits hardest among more educated and skilled workers, as is happening in Africa. The direct cost of treating HIV- and AIDS-infected people varies tremendously from country to country and within countries, depending on the quality of services provided. The direct cost of AIDS per case often exceeds per capita gross national product (GNP) (see table).
Country |
Average Direct Costs |
GNP Per Capita |
|---|---|---|
| (US$) | (1992 US$) | |
| Tanzania (1990) | 290 | 110 |
| Malawi (1989)a | 210 | 210 |
| Kenya (1992)a | 938 | 310 |
| Zimbabwe (1991) | 614 | 570 |
| Korea (1993) | 2,010 | 6,790 |
| Malaysia (1993) | 3,000 | 2,790 |
| Rwanda (1989-90) | 358 | 250 |
| Note: Average estimates are based on type and quality of treatment sought. a1991 dollars. |
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The discussion paper analyzes population forecasts of the United Nations, World Bank, and U.S. Bureau of Census to explore the cost of AIDS and the effects of the disease on population and economic growth. It projects the implications of the AIDS pandemic for food, agriculture, and the environment through the year 2020.
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