2020 Vision for South Asia Workshop

IFPRI projections show that even with an average annual rate of economic growth of 5.5 percent during the next two decades and substantial investment in health and education, South Asia will still have about 70 million malnourished children by 2020. Food insecurity and poverty will continue to affect about 200 million people. With these concerns in mind, workshop participants addressed the realistic goals in economic growth, agricultural production, trade, and natural resource protection that countries should set to eradicate food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition by 2020; the strategies and policies that would enable countries to achieve the goals on a sustainable basis; and key areas of regional cooperation for realizing the goals. The rate and timing of growth targets were also addressed, as were the cross-cutting nature of the development issues involved.

The targets for eradicating poverty in a little more than a decade are clear. Based on achievable population and economic growth rates of 1.4 and 6.7 percent per year, respectively, per capita income in South Asia could grow sufficiently to eliminate poverty by 2010 and reduce malnutrition among children by 2020 to the level reached in middle-income countries—about 10 percent. The gap between foodgrain supply and market demand could virtually be closed by 2020 if production grew at an average annual rate of 2.5 to 3.0 percent. A substantial increase in female literacy rates is also necessary for the poor to rise above poverty. And reforestation to 25 percent of land area will help achieve and sustain these gains.

Although the goal of eradicating poverty by 2010 is realizable, striving to reach growth targets will not eradicate poverty by itself. Other conditions will have to be fulfilled. Targeting the poor must be part of a more integrated effort at transforming the economic environment in which the poor live.

Participants discussed these and other issues, including the scope for meeting estimated food demand in 2020, the arrest and reversal of environmental degradation, and the need for and costs of a South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA).

Discussion of major regional initiatives included the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA) and SAFTA, which lay the foundation for an economic vision for South Asia. Participants pointed to the need for a similar vision for the social issues facing the region.

A shared vision of a common future can sustainably eliminate poverty early in the next century and set South Asia on a path of accelerated development. To make this happen, though, the leaders and policymakers in each country will need to give their serious attention to developing appropriate 2020 goals. As Godfrey Gunatilleke, chairman of the Marga Institute and an IFPRI board member, noted at the workshop, “South Asia’s 2020 Vision is not in the distant future; it is here and now. It can be seen in the eyes of South Asia’s children who are with us today.”

A six-page synthesis of the workshop discussion is available from IFPRI. It is entitled The 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment in South Asia: Continuing the Dialogue and is edited by Godfrey Gunatilleke. Copies of the workshop papers can be obtained by writing to Godfrey Gunatilleke at Marga Institute, 93/10 Dutugemunu Street, Kirulapone, Colombo 6, Sri Lanka; e-mail: marga@sri.lanka.net.

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