IFPRI--2020 Synthesis
IFPRI home page 2020 Vision main page what's new about 2020 international advisory committee news releases regional networks publications and other resources/catalog meetings

VISION Synthesis, October 1998
This synthesis, edited by Godfrey Gunatilleke, is based on a South Asia workshop held June 29–30 in Colombo, Sri Lanka, as part of IFPRI’s 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment initiative.

THE 2020 VISION FOR FOOD, AGRICULTURE, AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH ASIA: CONTINUING THE DIALOGUE

In June 1998 IFPRI and the Marga Institute organized a 2020 South Asia workshop in Colombo to continue the dialogue begun in a 2020 South Asia workshop in Kath- mandu in March 1995. An earlier synthesis paper summarized the discussions at the Kathmandu workshop. The meeting in Colombo revisited the 2020 Vision for South Asia in light of the major economic developments of recent years inside and outside the region. G. L. Pieris, the Sri Lankan minister of justice, constitutional affairs, ethnic affairs, and national integration, inaugurated the workshop. About 40 researchers, technical experts, and policymakers from 5 South Asian countries participated in the meeting. The objectives and strategies discussed below are those agreed upon by the workshop participants.

INTRODUCTION

Projections by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) indicate that even with an annual average rate of economic growth of 5.5 percent during the next two decades and substantial investment in health and education, South Asia will still have about 70 million malnourished children by 2020. Food insecurity and poverty will continue to affect about 200 million people. If economic growth drops below the projected level by about 25 percent, the region is unlikely to see any reduction in malnutrition and poverty. In such conditions, social and political tensions could reach proportions that governments might find difficult to manage in an orderly manner.

With these concerns in mind, workshop participants addressed the following issues:

  • The realistic goals that countries should set to eradicate food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition and ensure a reasonably high quality of life by 2020;
  • The combination of strategies that would enable countries to manage their natural resources on a sustainable basis while achieving the goals set for 2020;
  • The improvements and changes in policy that should have high priority for the purpose of achieving these goals; and
  • The main areas of regional cooperation for realizing the goals.

EXISTING CONDITIONS AND TARGETS

Population and Economic Growth

The United Nations’ medium-variant population projections estimate an annual average growth rate of about 1.7 percent in South Asia during the next 25 years. However, the rapid decline in population growth rates under way in Sri Lanka, India, and Bangladesh suggests that South Asian countries could improve on the medium-variant projections and even reach the low-variant projection of 1.4 percent.

Under the most likely scenario to 2020, IFPRI projects an average annual rate of economic growth of 5.5 percent between 1993 and 2020. However, in recent years South Asian countries have shown the capacity to maintain growth rates that already meet or surpass the projected rates. For instance, during the 1980s India recorded an average annual economic growth rate of 5.8 percent and Pakistan recorded 6.3 percent. South Asian countries, therefore, should raise their target rate of economic growth to 6–7 percent per year between now and 2020.

Based on these targets for population and economic growth, per capita income should grow at an average of about 5 percent a year between now and 2020. Thus, it should be quite possible for South Asia to eradicate absolute poverty by 2010 and reduce the burden of malnutrition among children by 2020 to the level reached in middle-income countries—about 10 percent.

Food Demand and Supply

The present gap between supply and market demand for the main food item—foodgrains—is small in South Asia. In 1993 supply fell short of market demand by about 3.2 million metric tons, roughly 1.5 percent of total demand. With the most likely income and population increases between now and 2020, IFPRI projects the gap between foodgrain supply and demand to increase to 27 million metric tons in 2020—approximately 7.7 percent of total demand. But higher economic growth and lower population growth would alter this scenario. Income increases would augment the demand for higher quality foods, particularly livestock products. On the other hand, an aging population could moderate the effect on demand.

Issues related to changes in dietary patterns are critical for determining food production strategies. Most analysts expect that growth in demand for livestock products in South Asia will be relatively low, compared, for example, with China. Cultural practices in India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are likely to restrain meat consumption. Nevertheless, even with low estimates, growth in the consumption of livestock products in South Asia is projected to more than double by 2020. Output in the region will not keep pace with demand, and by 2020 imports of livestock products will grow significantly. This scenario is based on per capita consumption of meat products that is about one-tenth of that projected for China in 2020.

The balance in supply and demand for foodgrains is particularly sensitive to increases in the consumption of livestock products. Currently livestock in South Asia largely graze and do not require much feedgrain. But as the livestock industry expands and grazing areas become insufficient, the demand for feedgrains will grow. In this case, the gap between supply and demand for cereals would be much larger than projected in the baseline scenario.

To meet foodgrain production targets for 2020 and virtually close the gap between supply and market demand, production would have to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 to 3 percent. The key policy issues for meeting estimated food demand are as follows:

  • The scope for expanding the land area for cereal production is severely limited in South Asia. Increases in output will therefore have to come primarily from increases in productivity. But in the medium term there is no prospect of a technological breakthrough in productivity on the scale of the Green Revolution. Increases in productivity, therefore, will have to come mainly from the more efficient use of resources.
  • The potential for increasing land productivity—especially for rainfed and marginal land—is relatively high, but the issue has received low priority. This potential should be fully exploited through an integrated strategy that includes research, extension, infrastructure development, and market development.
  • There are significant differences in productivity among farmers and regions that should be narrowed through better dissemination of research results.
  • Policy constraints that prevent the efficient functioning of markets for agricultural inputs and output should be identified and removed.
  • Structural changes in the demand for food and increasing demand for food of higher quality provide scope for diversification of agriculture on a major scale in South Asia. But without effective research, extension, credit, and marketing infrastructure, small-scale farmers will not be able to make full use of these opportunities. Public investment in agricultural research and infrastructure have to be sustained at adequate levels.
  • The demand for livestock products will be a critical determinant of food balances in the region. Culture-related food habits will restrain this demand, and it is likely that major imbalances in the supply of and demand for livestock products may not emerge. In this context, policies could promote the positive features of the existing low-meat diets.
Agriculture in South Asia has arrived at yet another stage, where new priorities are clearly emerging and transformations in production of a far-reaching nature are needed.

Food Insecurity, Poverty, and Malnutrition

The two main indicators of food insecurity in South Asia are poverty, which is its principal cause, and malnutrition, which is its outcome. The incidence of poverty and malnutrition in South Asia is the highest in the world. Approximately 43 percent of the population is below the poverty line and about 50 percent of children under five are malnourished. Poverty has significantly declined in the region in recent years, mainly due to progress in India.

Poverty. Higher economic growth and lower population growth can significantly reduce poverty and malnutrition in South Asia. With a target average annual economic growth rate of 6–7 percent, incomes of the poor in 1995 could double in real terms by 2010, enabling them, with the exception of the disabled, to cross the poverty line. The target of eradicating poverty by 2010 is realizable, but striving to reach growth targets will not eradicate poverty by itself. Two other conditions will have to be fulfilled: First, the economic growth that takes place will need to be distributed so that the incomes of the poor rise at a rate of about 5 percent per year; and second, until the poor cross the poverty line, public safety nets will have to be provided by the government to alleviate food insecurity and deprivation of other basic needs.

Countries in South Asia have already made firm commitments to the rapid reduction of poverty and are implementing a variety of programs aimed at achieving this objective. These programs need to be further evaluated and strengthened. A key path to reducing poverty, the liberalization of the economy, requires that poverty alleviation strategies give greater emphasis to getting the poor into the market economy. To ensure that the poor have access to markets, the large-scale private sector would have to be linked with the rural small-scale sector through the introduction of new crops, provision of extension services, and the purchase and marketing of produce. Targeting the poor has to be part of a more integrated effort at transforming the economic environment in which the poor live.

To achieve equitable growth that doubles the incomes of the poor by 2010, the following must be done:

  • Financial institutions and modes of lending should be further developed to provide the poor with improved access to adequate credit.
  • The rural economic and social infrastructure should be expanded and developed and the public budget should reflect this priority.
  • Opportunities to increase agricultural productivity, which will be the major source of income increases for the poor, should be exploited fully as an integral part of the effort to eradicate poverty. Furthermore, small-scale agriculture can be diversified with high-income crops and livestock to meet changing patterns of food demand.
  • Since agriculture is likely to grow by 3 percent a year at best over the coming years, and the incomes of the poor have to grow by about 5 percent a year, small- and medium-scale industries and services should be promoted in rural areas. Nonagricultural sources of income will have to provide an increasingly significant part of the income for the poor.
  • By 2020 the urban population will grow substantially and urban poverty could, therefore, become a significant problem. This is more likely to happen if low economic growth and rural poverty persist and the resulting rural-to-urban migration continues. The reduction of urban poverty requires strategies different from those for reducing rural poverty. Nonetheless, the strategies for reducing rural poverty that pay adequate attention to the expansion of nonagricultural employment and promotion of rural industrialization can mitigate the rise of urban poverty by retaining the population in rural areas.
  • The reduction of poverty requires, above all, the development of institutions at the grassroots level that enhance the decisionmaking power of the poor. Political processes that empower the poor will have to be strengthened and promoted.
  • Progress in the reduction of poverty should be monitored regularly. Members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have implemented a poverty monitoring system at the national and regional levels, but monitoring systems are beset with problems of definition, measurement, and method of data gathering. National systems should be established without delay, however, on the basis of available definitions and methodologies. The standardization and comparative evaluation for a regional system would follow.

    Malnutrition. Among developing regions South Asia has the highest incidence of child malnutrition—higher than is warranted by its level of infant mortality or even its level of poverty. Malnutrition in South Asia is a more complex problem than poverty, and its eradication is likely to take longer. The cycle of malnutrition that includes maternal malnutrition, low birth weight, and infant and child malnutrition, followed again by maternal malnutrition, cannot be broken through the eradication of poverty and food insecurity alone. Priority areas for reduction and eradication of malnutrition are as follows:

    • Improvement in the status of women and provision of female education are key preconditions for the reduction of malnutrition in South Asia. Adult female literacy rates for South Asian countries except Sri Lanka are among the lowest in the world, even lower than for most of Sub-Saharan Africa. Factors underlying the relatively low status of women and the high rate of adult female illiteracy are deeply embedded in the culture and social institutions of South Asian countries. This multidimensional problem has to be addressed on a much larger and more systematic scale than has been attempted so far. Countries need to set targets and monitor the reduction of female illiteracy and the progress made in female participation in primary, secondary, and tertiary education. Substantial increases in public investments in health and education need to be made in most countries. And policymakers have to ensure that these priorities are not neglected in the current policy regimes.
    • Nutrition and health education also need special attention. Programs have to be especially designed to take into account the high level of female illiteracy.
    • Programs and policies for reducing malnutrition have to address food habits and dietary patterns, the lack of food diversity, and the high level of micronutrient deficiencies. Nutrition education would also need to pay attention to dietary preferences.

    Natural Resources

    The arrest of environmental degradation is central to the 2020 Vision for South Asia. The prevailing patterns of land use are beset with poor management, fragmentation, and land degradation. Because new land for agriculture is negligible and urbanization and industrial growth are likely to take existing land out of agriculture, increases in agricultural output will depend on more intensive and productive use of already farmed land.

    Technologies that promote environmentally sound agricultural practices while increasing productivity, and policies that strengthen property rights, correct tenurial anomalies, discourage fragmentation, and promote land markets that operate more freely, are essential. Because South Asian countries have little comparative advantage in using scarce land and water on cereal production, more attention may need to be paid to growing noncereals, which yield higher incomes per hectare and unit of water and can be produced for both regional and world markets. This type of land use may be more sustainable and better adapted to the South Asian environment. Strategies that increase the productivity of rainfed and marginal land and neglected crops could also help to prevent further land degradation and conserve resources. The scope for wood-fuel and other energy-crop farming in the semihumid southern parts of South Asia should be investigated. This type of farming could yield attractive incomes while protecting the environment.

    In the region as a whole the natural forest cover has declined to about 20 percent of total land area—a proportion that is significantly less than what is desirable on environmental grounds. There is scope for large-scale reforestation in South Asia to increase forest cover (and mangroves) to 25 percent of the total land area by 2020. Such an initiative for the “greening of South Asia” could gain a high profile and become a regional initiative as the centerpiece of an environmental protection program.

    South Asian countries have to manage their water resources on a long-term, integrated plan. The imperatives of such planning are particularly critical for Pakistan, where an International Water Management Institute (IWMI) study projects that withdrawals will increase to about 71 percent of available water. Seasonal water shortages can severely affect agricultural output. The use of water for agriculture in the region can be made more efficient through improved practices, such as water management regimes with user participation, and the application of new technologies, such as sprinkler irrigation. Incentives for economizing in the use of water must come from reasonable pricing policies. The pricing of irrigation water, however, remains a contentious issue. Some form of communal or individual property rights needs to be introduced in areas where common resources are wasted. Appropriate participatory institutions are also needed to enhance collective responsibility for the efficient use and conservation of water. South Asian countries have taken some initiatives in all these areas, but well-integrated policies have yet to emerge.

    With rapid urbanization and industrial growth, shortfalls of water will develop in various parts of South Asia that will be particularly acute during the dry season. This intensification of water use calls for the integrated management of river basins in order to use land and water resources in a sustainable way. The potential of Himalayan water resources for agricultural and industrial uses, particularly in the northeast part of the subcontinent, is enormous and underutilized. The potential for hydropower is especially immense. These resources could supply a significant proportion of the energy needed for industrialization in this part of South Asia. Political will and the appropriate institutional infrastructure are required for the management and sharing of water.

    Trade

    IFPRI’s projections to 2020 indicate that the region is likely to import only a small proportion of cereals and livestock products, relying primarily on own production to meet demand. But high projected economic growth rates suggest that countries in the region will have increased capacity to import needed food. On economic grounds alone, the region does not need to pursue a policy of full food self-sufficiency. There is considerable scope for intraregional trade in a whole range of noncereal agricultural products. Countries within the region could exploit this potential by removing existing trade barriers and cooperating in the promotion of greater trade.

    The region should move as speedily as possible in the direction of a South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), but various problems can arise. The price structures and levels of productivity vary widely in the region and so do the degrees of protection against imports. Thus, the costs and benefits of a rapid removal of trade barriers may be distributed with marked unevenness. Large numbers of farmers may be deprived of their livelihoods in countries where domestic production cannot compete with imports, while in other countries producers could benefit substantially. The movement toward free trade must be coordinated, giving time for sectors that are uncompetitive to undergo structural adjustment. Postponing the entry of certain products into the free-trade regime will not by itself serve the purpose of SAFTA. Governments will have to promote and facilitate structural adjustment and provide adequate support to help cope with its effects. Countries may need to establish facilities and funds for this purpose if they are to progress smoothly toward SAFTA.

    TARGETS FOR 2020

    The primary targets that South Asia should realize by 2020 are as follows:

    • Average annual rate of economic growth: 6 to 7 percent.
    • Average annual rate of population growth: 1.4 percent.
    • Average annual rate of growth of per capita income: 4.6 to 5.6 percent.
    • Annual rate of agricultural growth: 2.5 to 3 percent.
    • Target year by which poverty and food insecurity are eradicated, with the exception of the disabled: 2010.
    • Prevalence of child malnutrition: 10 percent.
    • Reduced rate of female illiteracy, universal female enrollment in primary schools, and doubling of secondary- and tertiary-school enrolment.
    • Reforestation as percentage of total land area: 25 percent.

    These are aggregate targets for the region as a whole. Country targets need to be adapted to local conditions. Sri Lanka, for example, has much higher levels of female education and lower levels of poverty, malnutrition, and fertility than the rest of South Asia. Its targets in these areas will be relatively higher. At the same time, with its rapidly aging population, Sri Lanka’s rate of growth of the workforce will decline, and economic growth rates in the later period are likely to fall below the averages that have been set. At the other end, some targets for Pakistan will have to be adjusted downward to be consistent with a population growth rate that is much higher than the South Asian average and a female literacy rate that is much lower.

    Workshop participants felt that it would be useful to set midterm targets as important milestones in the progress toward the 2020 Vision. This would help policymakers pay attention to the interconnections between ongoing and medium-term policies and the realization of long-term goals. Midterm targets would also help relate the long-term vision to the prospects and expectations of the present generation and thereby give 2020 goals more immediate political and social meaning.

    In striving to achieve the 2020 targets, the region may have to push for higher growth in the first decade and a half. The region should aim for an average annual rate of economic growth in this period of 7–8 percent, tapering off to lower rates in the 2010–2020 period. This initial push would enable the early eradication of poverty. It would also enable countries to create a resource base and capacity that could deal with problems arising from an aging population, a slowing growth of the labor force, and the rising burden of social security. These problems will emerge earlier in all their magnitude in Sri Lanka, which already has a life expectancy of 72 years. Improvements in female literacy and education should aim at the highest levels and come as early as possible.

    The issues and targets cut across each other. The development of rainfed agriculture, neglected crops, and marginal land, for example, has relevance for agricultural output, economic growth, poverty reduction, and management of the natural resource base. The lowering of the rate of population growth underpins the growth of the economy, the improvement of reproductive health, the reduction of malnutrition, and the sustainable use of resources. Political processes and institutions that lead to broad-based responsibility and decisionmaking power are essential means of eradicating poverty and malnutrition as well as protecting the environment. Public investment in developing and enhancing human and natural resources affect food production, poverty, nutrition, and the environment. Regional cooperation for the development of the Himalayan river systems will bring relief to some of the deepest pockets of poverty, provide an abundant source of hydropower and water for industry and agriculture, and contribute to sound management of natural resources. It is important to highlight these crosscutting programs and processes as countries implement 2020 targets because they are mutually reinforcing and act as critical levers on the road to development.

    REGIONAL INITIATIVES

    Major regional initiatives include the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA) and SAFTA, commitments to poverty alleviation and the well-being of children, and collective action for strengthening food security and cooperation in the protection of the environment. With SAPTA and SAFTA, the foundation has been laid for developing the economic vision for South Asia. The same cannot be said of the social vision for the region. Many of the social initiatives already taken need to be more effectively developed, so that targets for implementation and mechanisms for monitoring achievement are in place.

    Among the regional initiatives on human development that could form part of a 2020 Vision for South Asia are the following:

    • Reduction of child malnutrition: This requires political commitment at the highest levels because it calls for concerted action in several interrelated areas such as female illiteracy and the status of women. Improving children’s nutrition should have the same high priority in the regional agenda as does poverty alleviation.
    • Exploitation of the water and hydropower potential of the Himalayan river systems: The SAARC countries need to develop forms of regional cooperation and intergovernmental arrangement for this to happen. Existing bilateral initiatives can provide the foundation for regional cooperation on a larger scale.
    • Reforestation and greening of South Asia: This could be undertaken as a major, collective effort in which there is broad-based participation, including that of children and youth.
    • Implementation of SAFTA: This will require structural adjustment on the part of all countries. Sectors that become uncompetitive in the free trade regime would have to be phased out. SAARC could establish a fund that would facilitate and support these adjustments, particularly in the food and agriculture sector, which disproportionately affects the livelihoods of the rural poor.
    • Participation in the next round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations on agricultural trade: These will begin soon and will have significant implications for food and agriculture in South Asia. The South Asian countries could benefit by identifying common issues and positions and collaborating with each other in their WTO negotiations.
    • Regional research program: This would focus on common problems in the region that have high priority for collaborative research in food and agriculture, nutrition, poverty, and the environment. SAARC could develop or promote such a program.

    The 2020 Vision for South Asia cannot be approached simply as an initiative that addresses issues far in the future, unconnected with the present. Envisioning the future is a task for the here and now. The quality of life in store for the present younger generation and the expectations they have of the future depend on the development goals currently being put into place. Policies in the short and medium term, therefore, must be directed consciously to sustaining these prospects and expectations and making them realistic and capable of achievement. Sustainable and orderly progress toward the vision of the future will be the anchor of social and political stability in the region.

    A 2020 vision for South Asia can be a powerful means of accelerating national development and regional cooperation. To make this happen the leaders and policymakers in each country will need to give their serious attention to developing appropriate 2020 goals. A shared vision of a common future can eliminate poverty early in the next century.

    Godfrey Gunatilleke is chairman of the Marga Institute and a member of IFPRI’s Board of Trustees. The Marga Institute undertakes research on social and economic development and provides training and assistance to nonprofit, voluntary organizations. Copies of the workshop papers can be obtained by writing to Godfrey Gunatilleke at Marga Institute, 93/10 Dutugemunu Street, Kirulapone, Colombo 6, Sri Lanka. E-mail: marga@sri.lanka.net.

    © Copyright and Fair Use
    IFPRI holds the copyright to its publications and web pages but encourages duplication of these materials for noncommercial purposes. Proper citation is required.
go to top TOP of the page