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POLICY SEMINAR
Success and Failure of Reform: Insights from the Transition of Agriculture
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| Location: International Food Policy Research Institute 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC Fourth Floor Conference Facility 19 February 2004 3:30-5:00 p.m. RSVP |
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ABSTRACT
This seminar presents the lessons from a comparative analysis of agricultural transition in more than 25 transition countries, including China, Russia and Central Europe. In our study we analyze the linkages between the reform strategies that officials have used in different countries in the transition world and economic performance. During the seminar Scott and Jo will present a series of figures that document the post reform performance of the agricultural sectors in the 25+ transition countries. We will show how three factors-pricing reform and subsidy reductions; land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring; and the presence institutions that facilitate exchange (either markets or market substitutes)-affect output and productivity. While many have argued that transitions in East Asia (i.e., China and Vietnam) have been different than the transitions elsewhere in the world, we find in our paper that if the first post-transition years are ignored, the records of a number of Central European nations, such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Poland, are remarkably similar to those of their East Asian counterparts. We also find that much of the differences between the transitions during the first few years in the East Asia and Europe can be explained by prereform differences in real domestic prices of output and inputs and those in the rest of the world. Since prior to the reforms most European countries were heavily subsidizing agriculture and most East Asian countries were taxing agriculture, when leaders in the two sets of nations took steps to make their economies more efficient and have prices in their economies move more towards those of world markets, prices (and output) plummeted in Europe while they rose in China and Vietnam. Hence, one of our major conclusions is not that the experiences were so different among regions, but that they were so similar. Based on our work, we are also able to discuss various policy options that the other heretofore less successful transition economies might pursue. Please RSVP to 202-862-8107 or Email: S.Hill-Lee@cgiar.org. |
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