There is a growing consensus, in both the academic and policy communities, that low-income countries face the highest risk of internal conflict. This correlation between poverty and violence has been described alternatively as a "vicious cycle" or a "conflict trap." At the same time, there appears to be widespread agreement that: (1) countries are unlikely to emerge from this trap on their own and; (2) multilateral intervention --in the form of peacemaking, peacekeeping, and other multidimensional operations --is a necessary instrument for reversing the political and economic decline characteristic of the poorest countries experiencing conflict. New evidence is undoubtedly supportive of the second proposition, but the first has been accepted largely without question and inquiry.

In his presentation, Dr. Weinstein will ask two basic questions. First, what are prospects for autonomous recovery? Can countries emerge from the conflict trap and, perhaps, build better, more stable institutions in the absence of international intervention? Second, if autonomous recovery is untenable as a policy option, what forms of transitional governance designed (and implemented) by the international community support rather than impede the processes of internal change required to build stable institutions for the long-term? Please RSVP to 202-862-8107 or Email: S.Hill-Lee@cgiar.org.