April 23, 1996

World's Natural Fish Stocks Depleted Says New Study

WASHINGTON, D.C.--The ability to meet world demand for fish from natural fish stocks has reached its peak and now is declining, according to a new study released today by the Washington, D.C.-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The study predicts that because of a growing human population and dwindling stocks of naturally occurring fish, the world will need to turn increasingly to aquaculture or fish farms, managed natural fisheries, and genetically improved, fast-growing fish if it is to meet future food needs without ruining global aquatic resources.

"Fish is a critical food supply for the world's poor, providing 1 billion people sustenance for their daily lives and 150 million people employment," said Meryl Williams, author of the study and director general of the Philippines-based International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management. "Failure to invest now in the needed research and development to improve aquaculture and managed fisheries could lead to further damage to the world's aquatic resources and economic losses of billions of dollars, tens of millions of tons of food, and millions of jobs."

Managed fisheries are natural fish stocks in which some control over harvesting methods and rates is applied. Aquaculture is the farming of aquatic resources, including fish, mollusks, crustaceans, and aquatic plants.

The study, The Transition in the Contribution of Living Aquatic Resources to Food Security, was commissioned by IFPRI s 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment, which seeks to draw consensus on ways to prevent hunger to the year 2020 while reducing poverty and protecting the environment.

According to the study, just as some land-based food production devastates the terrestrial environment, the world's growing appetite for fish is degrading the marine environment. Efforts to predict the production capacity of the world's natural fisheries have been able to spot overall trends, and the study reports that "the upper biological limit is falling for many species as overexploitation erodes the resource base."

"The cost of rehabilitation of natural fish stocks is escalating exponentially; in some cases the damage may become irreversible," the study finds. "The low-income people of the developing world will be the hardest hit when their fragile purchasing power and often tenuous access to the means of production are further challenged."

That can change, though, if research and development begin now.

"In 2020, production will rely less on natural stocks and more on aquaculture and enhanced stocks," the study predicts. But it will take at least another 25 years beyond that before aquaculture meets the majority of the world's fish needs.

"The rate of progress will depend on developments in the research pipeline and on the time required to produce new results," according to the study. For example, it would take at least five years to make genetic alterations in fast-growing species, such as tilapias, and several more years to begin growing them on farms. "Genetic improvements in longer-living species will take much longer."

Improved fishing methods and the development of non- fish-based feeds for aquaculture also will contribute to future production, the study says. New fish may also be domesticated to be grown on farms.

All of this does not mean that fish will be cheap. "Fish is unlikely to ever return to being the poor man's protein," the study says. However, those higher prices are expected to stimulate increased fishing and rising production from aquaculture. One result is that more people will be employed in the business of bringing fish to market, but fewer of them will be taking to the open water in boats.

The research needed to improve aquaculture and managed fisheries is expensive and neglected. "Aquatic resource research has long struggled for attention against more visible priorities on the land," the study says. "The resources, and therefore research and management needs, have tended to be underwater, out of sight and out of mind."

IFPRI was established in 1975 to identify and analyze policies for meeting the food needs of the developing world. IFPRI is one of 16 international research organizations supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), an informal association of some 40 countries, international and regional organizations, and foundations whose mission is to contribute to sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity.