June 7, 1999

WHERE'S THE BEEF?
Experts Say “Livestock Revolution” Is Here to Stay
It Will Fuel Increase in Global Demand for Meat and Milk Products by 2020

WASHINGTON, D.C., June 7, 1999-Increased consumption of meat and milk products in developing countries will have wide-ranging, global effects that are at least as profound as those engendered by the Green Revolution a generation ago, according to Christopher Delgado of the International Food Policy Research Institute. Speaking at a panel discussion at IFPRI last week, Delgado discussed this significant change in world eating habits in the context of the recently released 2020 Vision discussion paper, Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution. He also said, “There is potential for disaster, but also potential for triumph,” if the world accurately anticipates the changes that are emerging. The paper asserts that a “Livestock Revolution” is now taking place and projects that by 2020 developing countries will consume 100 million metric tons more meat and 223 million metric tons more milk than they did in 1993, dwarfing developed-country increases of 18 million metric tons for both meat and milk.

As discussed in this detailed report jointly produced by IFPRI, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the Livestock Revolution is already underway, and its impacts on global agriculture will significantly affect our health, livelihoods, and environment. The bottom line is that, as incomes rise and migration to cities increases, people the world over consume more meat and milk products; however, even if per capita consumption were to remain steady, the increases in population alone would mean a large surge in demand for meat products.

Thus, the Livestock Revolution is a demand-driven movement, while the Green Revolution was driven by the rising productivity of cereals in developing countries. Like the Green Revolution, the term Livestock Revolution is a convenient expression that summarizes a complex series of interrelated processes and outcomes in production, consumption, and economic growth. And again like the Green Revolution, the revolutionary aspect comes from the participation of developing countries in large-scale transformations that had previously occurred mostly in the temperate zones of developed countries.

Lester Brown, the president of Worldwatch Institute and a panelist at the IFPRI session, warned that more efficient use of water resources will be necessary if sufficient feed resources are to be available to satisfy rapidly rising demand for meat products. He cited the fact that electric pumps can drain aquifers at alarming rates: “Before there was a limit to how much water could be depleted. That has changed dramatically: aquifer depletion is now a major factor in food costs.”

A key related issue is the need for greater grain yields to feed the increased numbers of livestock-not to mention the attendant issues of environment, health, and humane treatment of animals (all of which were discussed by the panelists). According to Hank Fitzhugh, the director general of ILRI in Nairobi, Kenya, these issues will pose “challenges to decision makers and they have major implications for [agricultural] research, especially with respect to feed.”

In the final analysis, the anticipated rapid growth in the consumption of livestock products is a given that will need to be addressed, in Delgado’s view. Industrial livestock production systems have already developed rapidly in response to this trend, often with unfavorable consequences for environmental sustainability and for the livelihoods of poor small-scale producers. However, if improved policies and better technologies are adopted, small-scale producers can become more involved, with related benefits for environmental sustainability, consumer empowerment, and poverty alleviation.