June 14, 1995

Potential for International and National Water Conflicts Is High in Coming Years According to Research Organization

WASHINGTON, D.C.--"The world does not consider water the scarce resource that it is," said Mark Rosegrant, research fellow with the Washington, D.C.-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and author of a recent study on water released today at IFPRI's international conference, A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment. "Unless this changes, the world may be faced with another polarizing force to replace the Cold War."

Water plays a central role in assuring an adequate food supply. Agriculture is the largest consumer of water, using an average of 80 percent of total water consumption in developing countries. As population swells and incomes grow, demand for water for residential and industrial purposes increases rapidly. With water becoming increasingly scarce and development of new sources of water becoming very costly for many already capital-short countries, more national conflicts are expected to arise, pitting industry, urban centers, and agriculture against each other. To solve these national water tensions, countries tend to look beyond their borders for wider reign over water basins they share with other countries. Hence, national water scarcity could escalate existing tensions between nations and lead to flare-ups of long-standing international water conflicts, according to Rosegrant.

But water scarcity and water conflict could be prevented if water conservation or "water use efficiency" were increased in agriculture and in all other sectors, according to the study, "Reforming Water Allocation Policy through Markets in Tradable Water Rights," which was coauthored by Rosegrant and Renato Gazmuri Schleyer, former secretary for agriculture in Chile. According to the IFPRI study, policies governing water use around the world such as those that subsidize water use induce excessive use of water and cause much water to be wasted. If poor water policies were changed, there might be enough water for agriculture and to fuel industry and urban centers of the future. Without such policy changes, however, water wars could erupt.

Water Conflicts

Conflicts are brewing now over rivers and river basins shared by many countries around the world. This is not unexpected given the fact that more than 200 bodies of water are shared by two or more countries.

Strife over water is erupting throughout the Middle East, from the watersheds of the Nile to the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. According to a second study, "Middle East Water Conflicts and Directions for Conflict Resolution," which was also released at the 2020 conference in the "parched and volatile Middle East, the region is running out of water. And the people who have built their lives and livelihoods on a reliable source of freshwater are seeing the shortage of this vital resource impinge on all aspects of the tenuous relationships which have developed over the years between nations, between economic sectors, and between individuals and their environment." The study was authored by Aaron Wolf from the University of Alabama.

Likewise, a tussle is simmering in South Asia's Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin, where Bangladesh, India, and Nepal dispute the best uses of water. India and Nepal want to exploit the basin's huge hydroelectric power-generating potential, whereas Bangladesh wants the water managed in such a way as to minimize flooding during monsoon months and water shortages during dry months. Of equal concern are the water conflicts between states in India that share river basins, such as Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, which border the Cauvery River. In the other parts of India, people have been killed in riots over water. There are water shortages during the dry season in every major city in South Asia. During the dry season, city pipes are often empty, creating situations where water must be delivered by truck to mobs of desperate people.

Increasing Water Efficiency

According to the Rosegrant/Gazmuri study, water managers, farmers, and urban water users currently have little incentive to reduce their use of water. Across South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere, household and industrial water, and irrigation water channeled to farmers is heavily subsidized by the government, and as a result, water is overused.

In countries where the price of water for urban and agricultural uses is kept artificially low, the Rosegrant/Gazmuri study proposes that subsidies on water be reduced as part of comprehensive water policy reform. Such reforms in Chile have increased aggregate irrigation efficiency by 22 to 26 percent from 1975 to 1992. According to the study, "using the lowest estimate, and taking into account Chile's total irrigated area of 1,200,000 hectares, this is equivalent to freeing up enough water to irrigate an additional 264,000 hectares of crops of average water-use intensity."

"An investment of about US$400 million in new irrigation infrastructure would have been required to generate such water efficiency gains," said Gazmuri. "And these gains were generated purely through policy reforms."

Without such policy reforms, overuse of water will continue to take a heavy toll on the environment. Without proper drainage, excess water results in waterlogged fields and salt buildup in soils. This water-induced land degradation has and will continue to reduce crop yields, and if serious enough, could result in farmlands that can no longer be cultivated.

"There are many ways of increasing water efficiency," said Rosegrant. "These include increasing the price of water to users to better reflect its scarcity. Just like any other good, decreased supply increases cost. Water should be priced likewise. We must get away from the notion that water is a free good."

According to the Rosegrant/Gazmuri study, the establishment of secure water rights is also key in improving the efficiency, equity, and sustainability of water use in water-scarce areas. As water scarcity increases, well-defined, tradable water rights could create the necessary incentives for farmers to save water and sell off the portions they do not use to other users. This process, known as "water marketing," has been used successfully in the state of California in the United States during recent drought years. By helping farmers sell units of water they did not need to the cities, California was able to reduce water consumption and still have plenty of water to spare.

Outside the United States, effective water markets have been working in Chile. A Chilean farmer can typically save 30 percent of his or her irrigation water on a 40-hectare grape farm and can sell his or her water rights for the saved water for $7,000-$10,000, without reducing yields, according to Gazmuri.

The study also suggests that improvements be made in old and outdated irrigation systems and urban water and sewage systems in developing countries. Such improvements would be financially feasible if control and financial responsibility for irrigation water management were transferred from centralized state agencies to farmer-based water user groups or associations.

"Water user associations could contribute to more efficient use of water, improved water delivery to farmers when they need it, and better management of irrigation systems," said Rosegrant. "Privatization and regulation of urban water services, together with the reduction of subsidies on urban water consumption, would also provide incentives for investments that upgrade delivery systems and reduce water losses. Removal of subsidies for urban water use could have dramatic effects on water use."

Rosegrant noted growing evidence of price-induced conservation. "An increase in the water tariff in Bogor, Indonesia, from US$0.15 to US$0.42 per cubic meter resulted in a 30 percent decrease in household demand for water. Increased water tariffs in Goa, India, induced a 50 percent reduction in water use over a five-year period by a fertilizer factory. In S o Paulo, three industries reduced water consumption by 40 to 60 percent in response to the establishment of effluent charges."

Technological improvements are also practical solutions to conserving water, according to Rosegrant. As the value of water increases, the use of drip-irrigation, micro-sprinklers, and computerized control systems, used widely in developed countries, could have promising results for developing countries. In Malaysia's Muda irrigation system, computerized control of water a real-time management of water released from the main storage dam, keyed to telemetric monitoring of weather and stream flow conditions has significantly improved water use efficiency, according to Rosegrant.

Water Conflict Resolution Activities

Between nations, intergovernmental activities to settle conflicts over shared bodies of water have had mixed success. A 1977 agreement between Bangladesh and India allocated 63 percent of the dry season flow of the Ganges at the Bangladesh and India border to Bangladesh. However, in 1988, India did not renew the agreement and on several occasions has cut the flow of the Ganges at the Farraka barrage just inside the border to less than one-third of the amount agreed to in 1977. Water disputes remain a serious source of conflict between these two countries.

More significant headway has been made on talks between Israel and Jordan over the Jordan and Yarmuk Rivers, as well as over shared groundwater resources. However, the lack of participation of Lebanon and Syria in the talks has prevented a comprehensive settlement over the Jordan and Yarmuk Rivers.

The Wolf study calls for cooperation between countries sharing the same water basins, indicating that amicable reconciliation is cheaper than armed conflict. According to the Wolf study, "Put simply, conflicts over water rights are easier to resolve if the transaction costs of resolution are lower, and if opportunities exist for improving the efficiency of water use and discovery."

According to Rosegrant, a key to defusing potential international conflicts over water is national water policy reform to ensure the most efficient use of available water supplies.