June 15, 1995

Comprehensive Projections Model Predicts Future Hunger Hot Spots; Shows Pantry Bare in Large Pockets of the World in 2020

Investment in Agricultural Research Identified as Crucial To Keep Things from Going from Bad to Worse in 2020

WASHINGTON, D.C. Poor countries that now suffer widespread malnutrition and a general lack of food security can look forward to little improvement in the foreseeable future, states a new study released today by a leading international agricultural research group, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The study predicts that if further declines in support of agricultural research and development continue over the next quarter century, people in these countries will face even more serious privation.

"If further proposed cuts in foreign aid to agriculture take place, we will see disastrous consequences for the already poor," said Mark Rosegrant, research fellow at IFPRI and coauthor of the study with IFPRI researchers Mercedita Agcaoili-Sombilla and Nicostrato Perez. "Declines in investments in agriculture, combined with the overwhelming challenges of population growth, political unrest, urbanization, land degradation, and water scarcity make the future uncertain, at best. Our analysis shows that it is feasible to overcome these challenges, but only if farmers are backed by agricultural research. Today we are maintaining a delicate balance and, still, millions go hungry each day. With reduced support, what were once challenges could become crises."

IFPRI's study, "Global Food Supply, Demand, and Trade to 2020: Projections and Implications for Policy and Investment," uses projections generated by the Institute's innovative simulation model, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). IMPACT simulates a competitive agricultural market for crops and livestock and incorporates supply and demand models for 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities. The projections model is designed to give estimates of supply and demand for crops and livestock through the year 2020.

The study was released today in Washington, D. C., at an international conference, A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment, which was cosponsored by IFPRI and the National Geographic Society. More than 400 participants from 50 countries attended the conference to share research and solutions for preventing hunger while protecting the environment to the year 2020. The conference is part of a larger effort to prevent hunger to the year 2020 while reducing poverty and protecting the environment.

"This study shows that if projected trends continue, the world will have two distinct realities in the future," said Rosegrant. "Wealthy countries (and rapidly growing developing countries, mainly in Asia) will have food surpluses or the ability to import food at low prices, while poor, relatively slow-growing countries will make little or no progress toward food security or in reducing malnutrition."

The study concludes that "To change this picture will require significantly increased investment in agricultural research, education, and health, as well as general economic development to raise incomes, productivity, and access to food. Further progress in reducing population growth would also improve the food security situation. If, instead, public investment in agricultural research continues to decline, or degradation of the agricultural land base accelerates dramatically, the relatively favorable aggregate food situation would be significantly worsened and the already bleak nutritional picture made even worse."

Growth of investment in agricultural research began to slow about 1980 in both developed and developing countries, and spending per scientist in developing countries in real terms has been declining since then, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The IFPRI model's "baseline" scenario takes into account reductions in public spending on agricultural research during the last 15 years but assumes that the decline has leveled off and that such spending will be maintained at current levels in real terms. In addition to the baseline scenario, the study projects food production and demand for two other scenarios. One is based on additional reductions in public spending on agricultural research, and the other is based on increased public spending.

Three factors are seen as most important in influencing the future food situation. These are changes in population and income, the rate of urbanization, and the ability of countries to increase food production through improvements in yield levels. The capacity to respond to changes in these factors is incorporated in the model, as well as variations in food prices, investment in research, and technological changes.

The study's baseline scenario shows aggregate food production growing rapidly enough through the year 2020 to meet aggregate global demand for food and for world food prices to continue to decline. Under this scenario, there would not be overwhelming pressure on aggregate world food supplies from rising populations and incomes, projected per capita availability of food would increase slowly, and real world food prices would continue to decline for the main food crops.

"This means that if you add up all of the people in the world and add up all of the food in the world, theoretically there would be enough food for everyone. But this isn't reality because food is often not distributed to the right places and when it is available, the poor often cannot afford to buy it," Rosegrant said.

In fact, the baseline scenario shows limited growth (in per capita food availability) in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The problem is most acute for Sub-Saharan Africa where food production growth of just under 3 percent a year will barely outstrip the expected population growth of 2.9 percent a year.

These assumptions could be upset by current considerations of further cutbacks in U.S. foreign aid. If developed countries continue to reduce funding for international and developing country agricultural research, there would be dramatic decreases in production of foodgrains, particularly rice and wheat, and some 10 million children would be added to the ranks of the malnourished.

The baseline scenario forecasts slowly reviving economic growth rates for the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, as economic reforms take hold, and it assumes that growth rates for developing countries, generally, will continue to be higher than for developed countries.

According to the study, dramatic reductions in child malnutrition will require equally dramatic reductions in poverty. For the countries with a high concentration of poverty, which are also heavily dependent on agriculture, this can be accomplished only through sharply increased investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research and extension, coupled with broad-based economic development and increased social expenditures on education, health and sanitation, and nutrition.

IFPRI was established in 1975 to identify and analyze policies for meeting food needs of the developing world. IFPRI is one of 16 international research organizations supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, an informal association of some 40 countries, international and regional organizations, and foundations whose mission is to contribute to sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity.