October 27, 1999
Feeding the World
in the Next Millennium:
Farmers Must Produce
40 Percent More Grain
WASHINGTON, D.C., October 27, 1999-Nearly 75 million people will be added to the world’s population every year from now until 2020. During that time, rising incomes in the hands of millions of developing-country people will spur a large increase in global demand for food. To close the large gap between food production and demand projected for 2020:
- The world’s farmers must produce 40 percent more rice, wheat, and other grains;
- Developing countries must double their cereal imports; and
- Sixty percent of the developing world’s cereal imports will likely have to come from the United States.
International trade issues are addressed head-on in the report. Per Pinstrup-Andersen, IFPRI’s director general and a coauthor of the report, warns that “poor countries and poor people risk losing out on the economic benefits of more open global trade. International trade liberalization has to go hand-in-hand with national policy reforms, investments in the agriculture sector, access to developed-country markets, and the elimination of export subsidies in industrialized countries.”
In addition, a demand-driven “livestock revolution” is underway, according to the report, and demand for meat is projected to double in the developing world by 2020. In fact, developing countries are likely to have to import eight times more meat in 2020 than they did in 1995. China alone will account for more than 40 percent of this increase in demand for meat products.
The report also examines whether modern biotechnology can help provide food security for all. If focused on solving developing-country problems, biotechnology may help farmers reduce production risks and increase productivity. According to IFPRI’s findings, using biotechnology in the developing world could make food grains more nutritious and help combat widespread nutrient deficiencies among the poor, which lead to diseases and premature deaths for millions of women and children every year.
“The bad news is that there will continue to be a lot of hungry people,” said Dr. Pinstrup-Andersen. “The good news is that if we choose the appropriate technologies and make the right investments, the world’s farmers will be able to satisfy global food needs.”
World Food Prospects: Critical Issues for the Early Twenty-First Century can be ordered free of charge from IFPRI.
IFPRI is a Washington, D.C.-based, internationally funded organization established in 1975 to identify and analyze policies for meeting the food needs of the developing world. IFPRI conducts research on ways to achieve sustainable food production and optimize land use, improve food consumption and income levels of the poor, enhance the efficiency of markets and links between agriculture and other sectors of the economy, and improve trade and macroeconomic conditions.
For more information, contact:
Don Lippincott