IFPRI Report

Policies Aim to Avoid Conflict Over Dwindling Natural Resources

In "Middle East Water Conflicts and Directions for Conflict Resolution," Discussion Paper 12, Aaron T. Wolf of the University of Alabama holds that water scarcity is the most explosive global issue to be faced in coming decades. The arid Middle East, where water shortages are exacerbated by political and religious differences, may only be the forerunner of severe conflicts around the world.

Wolf looks at how the water crises in the Nile, Jordan, and Tigris-Euphrates river basins came about and reviews bilateral and multilateral negotiations to resolve the problems. Should water be shared according to property rights, needs, or economic efficiency? Although international water laws are ambiguous, equitable water-sharing agreements are so important to peace in the Middle East that some cooperative efforts have been attempted. The Israeli-Jordan Treaty of Peace spells out mutually recognized water allocations and agrees on steps to avoid pollution.

Water is not only essential for human existence and for agriculture, it is also the growth medium for the primary source of protein for 1 billion people--fish and other aquatic creatures. To keep up with expanding populations, it is essential to maintain natural fish catches, now close to being fully exploited, and to increase the number of fish available by rapidly expanding aquaculture. In "The Transition in the Contribution of Living Aquatic Resources to Food Security," Discussion Paper 13, Meryl Williams, director general of the International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management (ICLARM), points out that world fish catches have peaked and are now declining.

Changes in natural resource limits, demography, technology, and social values have triggered global changes in aquatic ecosystems and their living resources, according to Williams. The transition to relative scarcity signals a need for better management of fisheries, improved aquaculture production, better use of resources, and intensive research to find out the best ways to accomplish these goals.

According to the paper, the following issues need to be addressed to meet the 2020 demand for fish:

• Reduce postharvest losses.
• Improve management of fisheries, perhaps by developing user groups.
• Intensify exploitation of fisheries but only up to sustainable limits.
• Integrate fisheries and aquaculture sectors, which have been treated as separate entities.
• Balance national versus international interests, resolving conflicts over market competition for fish, demands for access to fisheries by foreign fleets, and management of shared stocks.

Estimates indicate that 65 percent of cropland in Africa, 51 percent in Latin America, and 38 percent in Asia has become degraded since mid-century. As land deteriorates, yields decline, forcing farmers to expand into marginal lands, which quickly become depleted in turn. Today, 5 to 10 million hectares are being lost annually to severe degradation. If this trend continues, 1.4 to 2.8 percent of total agricultural, pasture, and forestland will have been lost by 2020, according to Scherr and Yadav. Some researchers see this as a threat to future food security, while others argue that it is relatively unimportant to global food supplies. There is no question, however, that it impoverishes those who live in degraded areas and threatens their food security.

This paper is the product of an international workshop organized by IFPRI to address these issues and to determine what areas are particularly in need of attention (the "hot spots"), what areas are being improved (the "bright spots"), and what policies are most promising for reducing degradation. The paper identifies the most important hot spots and bright spots in each major developing region.

To effectively reduce land degradation, farmers must be given incentives to care for their land and access to the knowledge and inputs required for proper care. Based on the workshop discussions, the paper lists 10 policy recommendations for protecting and improving agricultural lands.

• Improve information systems for land management.
• Increase research and technology development for land improvement.
• Promote investment in land improvement.
• Modify property rights to encourage long-term land investments.
• Develop more flexible and participatory planning systems for sustainable use.
• Support local organizations to manage local resources.
• Develop marketing infrastructure.
• Correct distorted price incentives.
• Encourage rural income growth and diversification.
• Reduce discrimination against marginal regions in public investment.