This research is being undertaken to determine the effects of water availability on food supply, demand, and trade. This work is motivated by the severe challenge of meeting food production in a future of declining availability of water for agriculture. The primary objectives of this research are:

1. to develop an understanding on a global basis of the relationship between water scarcity, food production, and food security
2. to develop projections of water supply and demand, including water demand for the household and industrial sectors, and the implications of inter-sectoral competition for water on the availability of water for food
3. to analyze alternative futures for food production and demand and food security taking into account water availability for crops and livestock production
4. based on this analysis, to assess the impact of alternative water availability scenarios on water demand, food supply and demand, trade and food security, taking into account policy reforms and investments in water and irrigation management. The analysis is undertaken at global, regional and national levels.

In order to accomplish these research objectives, a water simulation model has been developed that attempts to project and analyze how water availability and demand evolve over the next three decades (from a base year of 1995), taking into account the availability and variability in water resources, water supply infrastructure, and irrigation and non-agricultural water demands, as well as the impact of alternative water policies and investments on water supply and demand. The study uses an extended version of the IMPACT model for the projection and analysis of food supply and demand, and the newly developed Water Simulation Model (WSM) model for projections of water supply and demand. IMPACT and WSM are integrated into the IMPACT-WATER model. In this modeling analysis, the world is divided into 69 spatial units. The spatial units include individual countries and regions, and China, India, and the United States, which together produce about 60 percent of cereals globally, are disaggregated into major river basins. Water supply and demand, and food production are assessed at the river basin scale, and food production is summed to the national level, where food demand and trade are modeled.

A major output of the IMPACT-WATER global analysis in 2002 was the publication of the IFPRI-IWMI book World Water and Food to 2025: Dealing with Scarcity. Based on results from the IMPACT-WATER model, this report shows that if current water policies continue, farmers will indeed find it difficult to meet the world's food needs. Hardest hit will be the world's poorest people. The results from the model used in this report also show the consequences of changing the course of water policy. Further inattention to water-related investments and policies will produce a severe water crisis, which will lead in turn to a food crisis. A commitment to sustainable use of water, through appropriate policies and investments, however, will lead to a more water- and food-secure world. In addition to the book, a summary report, Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis (PDF 282K), and a policy brief, Water and Food to 2025: Policy Responses to the Threat of Scarcity (PDF 521K) were also published. All three publications are available to order or download from IFPRI's website.

In 2002, a major new collaboration was initiated with the International Water Management Institute to further extend the global water and food modeling. A joint modeling team was established between the two institutes to undertake this new initiative. The overall goal of the project is to contribute to achievement of sustainable development of water for poverty alleviation and food security. The project will develop two linked and integrated models: a state-of-the-art research and analytical model, and a transparent and user-friendly model that allows interactive scenario testing with national and international policy makers to inform irrigation investment and water policy decisions.