Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening for Multi-Sector Policy Analysis in Malawi & Southern Africa
Trade and Macroeconomics and the Communications Divisions, IFPRI, and
the Agricultural Policy Analysis Training Unit, Bunda College

3-Week Course (March 13 - 31, 2000)
Quantitative Multi-Sector Policy Analysis

COURSE SCHEDULE

Note: AC = Andrea Cattaneo; ASR = Anne-Sophie Robilliard; HL = Hans Lofgren; PW = Peter Wobst; SR = Sherman Robinson;

Day 1: Monday, March 13
09.00-10.00 Introductory ceremony
10.00-10.30 Break with refreshments
10.30-12.30 Overview of course (HL)
Introduction of participants
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture: Introduction to policy analysis with SAM-based CGE models (AC/ASR).
Readings: Brooke et al (1998) [GAMS User's Guide]; Robinson (1989) [#10]; Devarajan et al (1994), Ch. 1 [#6].
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 Lecture/GAMS Exercise: Introduction to the GAMS language with simple application (supply-demand model) (AC/ASR);
Readings: Brooke et al (1998), Ch. 2 [GAMS User's Guide]; Varian (1990), Ch. 16 [#14]

Day 2: Tuesday, March 14
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Household theory (including derivation of Cobb-Douglas demand functions) (AC/ASR).
Readings: Varian (1990), Chs. 5-6 [#14]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Household demand application (AC/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture: SAMs and CGE models (HL/ASR);
Readings: Sadoulet and de Janvry (1995), Ch. 10 [#12]; Reinert and Roland-Holst (1997) [#9]
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 Lecture/GAMS Exercise: Interpreting SAM cells; calibrating CD demand system from SAM in GAMS (HL/ASR).
Reading: Selected SAMs from Lofgren (1999) [CGE Manual]

Day 3: Wednesday, March 15
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Producer theory (including derivation of first-order conditions for Cobb-Douglas technology) (AC/HL).
Reading: Varian (1990), Chs. 17-18 [#14]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Producer application in GAMS (AC/HL).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture: A simple open-economy CGE model (HL/ASR).
Readings: Devarajan et al, (1994), Ch. 2 [#6]; Devarajan et al. (1997) [#4]; Devarajan et al. (1993) [#5]
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: LOOP and display formatting applied to producer model (HL/ASR).
Readings: Brooke et al (1994), p. 151-152 [GAMS User's Guide]

Day 4: Thursday, March 16
09.00-10.15 Lecture: CGE1 (simple model with two sectors, two factors, and two households): Presentation of model and SAM (HL/ASR).
Reading: Lofgren (1999), Exercise 1 [CGE Manual]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Implementing CGE1 (HL/ASR)
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture: SAM construction and estimation (PW/ASR).
Readings: Robinson et al (1998) [#11]; Wobst (1998) [#15]
15.15-15.30
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Experiment with CGE1 (using LOOP) (PW/ASR).

Day 5: Friday, March 17
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Trade- and agriculture-focused CGE modeling (AC/ASR).
Readings: Devarajan et al (1994), Ch. 3 [#6]; Bautista et al. (1998) [#2]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 Lecture/GAMS Exercise: CGE2 C Intermediate demands: Presentation of model and SAM; starting GAMS implementation (AC/ASR).
Reading: Lofgren (1999), Exercise 2 [CGE Manual]
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 GAMS Exercise: continuing implementation of CGE2 (AC/ASR)
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Introduce the SAVE-RESTART feature; Experiment with CGE2 (using SAVE-RESTART) (AC/ASR).
Readings: Brooke et al (1994), p. 180 and 191 [GAMS User's Guide]

Day 6: Monday, March 20
09.00-10.15 Lecture: CGE3 C savings/investment, sectoral wage differentiation for factors: Presentation of model and SAM (HL/ASR)
Reading: Lofgren (1999), Exercise 3 [CGE Manual]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Implementing CGE3 (HL/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture/GAMS Exercise: Alternative savings-investment closures in CGE models; using IF-ELSE to introduce alternative assumptions or features in GAMS (SR)
Readings: Brooke et al (1998), p. 152-154 [GAMS User's Guide]
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Experiment with CGE3 (policy simulation with alternative savings-investment closures using IF-ELSE) (SR/ASR).

Day 7: Tuesday, March 21
09.00-10.15 Lecture: CGE4 C government, flexible treatment of factor markets: Presentation of model and SAM (SR/AC/ASR).
Reading: Lofgren (1999), Exercise 4 [CGE Manual]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Implementing CGE4 (AC/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture: The representation of government in CGE models (SR/AC/ASR)
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Policy experiment with CGE4 (AC/ASR).

Day 8: Wednesday, March 22
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Macro reforms, Structural Adjustment and CGE models (SR).
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Exporting data to spreadsheets (AC/ASR)
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 GAMS Exercise: Open (AC/ASR).
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (AC/ASR).

Day 9: Thursday, March 23
09.00-10.15 Lecture: CGE5 C open economy: Presentation of model and SAM (SR/AC/ASR)
Reading: Lofgren (1999), Exercise 5 [CGE Manual]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Implementing CGE5 (SR/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 GAMS Exercise: continue implementing CGE5 (SR/ASR).
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (AC/ASR).

Day 10: Friday, March 24
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Trade Reforms and CGE Models (SR).
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: simple policy experiment with CGE5 (different for different teams); preparation of 15-minute team presentation of model and results (brief note with tables and/or graphs) (SR/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 GAMS Exercise: continuation with CGE5 Exercise (SR/ASR).
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 Team presentations: CGE5 Exercise (SR/ASR).

Day 11: Monday, March 27
09.00-10.15 Lecture/GAMS Exercise: Aggregation of SAMs; mixing imperfect/perfect trade substitutability in CGE models; exercise with application of both topics in CGE5 (SR/ASR)
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture/GAMS exercise: LES demand system (SR/ASR).
Readings: handout with LES in GAMS
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS exercise: implementing LES in CGE5 (SR/ASR).

Day 12: Tuesday, March 28
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Regional Integration (SR).
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 Lecture: Construction of Macro SAM from aggregate data (with simple GAMS example) (SR/ASR)
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS exercise: Teams construct country-specific Macro SAMs (SR/ASR).

Day 13: Wednesday, March 29
09.00-10.15 Lecture/GAMS exercise: CES production function (SR/ASR)
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS exercise: implementing CES production function in CGE5 (SR/ASR)
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).

Day 14: Thursday, March 30
09.00-10.15 Lecture: Alternative macro closures in open-economy CGE models (SR).
Readings: Dewatripont and Michel (1987) [#7]; Taylor (1990) [#13]; Lofgren (1995) [#8]; Decaluwe et al. (1988) [#3]; Adelman and Robinson (1988) [#1]
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS exercise: Implementing alternative macro closures in CGE5 (SR/ASR)
12.30-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 GAMS Exercise: Designing report tables (SR/AC/ASR)
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).

Day 15: Friday, March 31
09.00-10.15 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).
10.15-10.30 Tea/Coffee Break
10.30-12.30 GAMS Exercise: Open (SR/ASR).
12.30 - 14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.15 General discussion: Future plans, loose ends; course evaluation (SR/ASR).
15.15-15.30 Tea/Coffee Break
15.30-17.30 Closing: Bye-bye and see-you-later-cake

Note: handouts will be provided throughout the course to supplement lectures and readings.


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