ANNOUNCEMENT
COURSE IN QUANTITATIVE POLICY ANALYSIS

During the period March 13-31, 2000, the Trade and Macroeconomics Division and the Communications Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C., and the Agricultural Policy Analysis Training Unit, Bunda College of Agriculture, Malawi, are jointly offering two courses in quantitative policy analysis funded by the German BMZ. The courses are focused on general and partial equilibrium models for policy analysis. They provide the participants with a broad range of skills in: (1) data management (including the use and construction of Social Accounting Matrices); (2) economic theory (micro, macro, and international trade theory relevant to policy modeling), and (3) applied modeling in the GAMS language, and will combine lectures and hands-on computer applications. These courses are part of the IFPRI-Bunda College of Agriculture project "Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening for Multi-Sector Policy Analysis in Malawi and Southern Africa".

Summary of Course Contents

The course covers both partial and general equilibrium approaches to policy analysis. The partial equilibrium models include supply-demand models of single and multiple markets: i.e., models that are applied to a subset of the markets of an economy. Such models are useful tools for assessing policy impact, especially when the policies only affect sectors that represent a relatively small share of total economic activity. General equilibrium models, which cover all economic sectors, are more powerful since they give a fuller account of the economic repercussions of policy changes, but they are also more complex to construct and use. Each general equilibrium simulation (reflecting a policy change or an exogenous shock) shows the impact on a full set of economic indicators, including disaggregated household incomes, prices, supplies and demands for factors and commodities (including foreign trade), and macroeconomic aggregates.

In the process of teaching these modeling approaches, the course combines theory, data, and application, with emphasis on hands-on computer training. In the theory area, it surveys basic micro, macro, and trade theory, all of which are applied in economic models. Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) provide a practical framework for organizing economic data for a wide variety of models; the course presents this framework and teaches methods (developed at IFPRI) for generating up-to-date SAMs that are tailor-made for a specific task. For economic modeling and data analysis, the course teaches the GAMS programming languages. It also relies on spreadsheet programs, especially for data analysis. It should be emphasized that the different parts of the course are tightly integrated and cumulative - the course moves from the simple to the complex; both theoretical and applied skills developed at earlier stages are drawn upon and further developed at later stages.

The course starts with a survey of relevant theory and a set of computer exercises teaching basic skills, after which a set of models are built and implemented, drawing on data primarily derived from the SAMs developed in the Macroeconomic Reforms and Regional Integration in Southern Africa (MERRISA) project at IFPRI. Subsequently, the participants are divided into small teams. Each team applies a country model to the analysis a selected current policy issue (for example issues related to poverty alleviation, agricultural development, trade policy, or fiscal reform). Each team prepares a note presenting their analysis and makes a presentation to the rest of the class.

Course Offerings
Two courses are currently being held in Quantitative Policy Analysis: a three-week course and a six-week course. The three-week course covers the contents described above. The first half of the six-week course was held in November 1999 and consisted of the three-week course curriculum. The second half of the six-week course, being held March 13-31, 2000 is oriented to more advanced topics and practical application.

Schedule of Three-Week Course (March 13-31, 2000)
Reading list of Three-Week Course
Schedule of Six-Week Course (March 13-31, 2000)
Reading list of Six-Week Course

For more information, contact:

Peter Wobst
Trade and Macroeconomics Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
2033 K Street
Washington, D.C. 20006 U.S.A.